:::renaissance chambara:::

Posts on quality, life, culture, the media, news & tech with a twist & a slice of Limey. I moved my blog to http://renaissancehambara.jp in December 2006, go there for the latest content.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

 
By the numbers

If you have been following the three-ring circus that has been the US presidential election you may find this link with graphics and updated results from the New York Times Online useful. During the few days I spent back in Liverpool the subject of the election came up with my old school friend Joe, he predicted that Bush would win and based this on the fact that he was the bookmakers favourite. This simple deduction reminded me of the work that DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) were commissioning on the FutureMAP project (Future Markets Applied to Prediction) (you can also find out here) to predict future happening such as the risk of a terrorist attack or a regime change. Next stop, get down to your local Ladbrokes shop to play your part in the war on terror.

FutureMAP Program Objectives,

Strategic decisions depend upon the accurate assessment of the likelihood of future events. This analysis often requires independent contributions by experts in a wide variety of fields, with the resulting difficulty of combining the various opinions into one assessment.

The FutureMAP program at DARPA is investigating the use of markets and market-like mechanisms in aggregating information from diverse multiple sources. Specifically this will involve

(a) defining and running demonstration markets for proof-of-concept,

(b) conducting analytical studies to develop new market structures and features of interest to the DoD,

(c) designing and running a laboratory testbed to evaluate and validate market structures, and

(d) conducting red team exercises to ensure robustness. Additionally, FutureMAP will investigate ancillary topics such as incentives for participation, the use of information markets in conjunction with natural markets, and regulatory and logistical issues.

Create Social Bookmark Links


Links to this post:

Create a Link



<< Home

Archives

03/2004   04/2004   05/2004   06/2004   07/2004   08/2004   09/2004   10/2004   11/2004   12/2004   01/2005   02/2005   03/2005   04/2005   05/2005   06/2005   07/2005   08/2005   09/2005   10/2005   11/2005   12/2005   01/2006   02/2006   03/2006   04/2006   05/2006   06/2006   07/2006   08/2006   09/2006   10/2006   11/2006   12/2006  


Welcome, thanks for visiting and a bit about this blog (:::renaissance chambara::: all in lower case just like UNIX)
Got something to bitch about? Trying to legal the author or want to send scary fan mail? Click here for more details
Want to leave a comment? Feel free, but please take account of the guidelines
The blogroll (there's some missing that Bloglines can't read, if you're not in sort your feeds out)
Subscribe via RSS to :::: renaissance chambara ::::
The grooves that drive :::: renaissance chambara :::: (see what's on our iTunes)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.5 License.

Blogger rox nuffsaid.